Oil fell more than 8% after the midterms and the national gas average is $4.12. Here’s how soon prices could drop below $4, how much cheaper gas could get, and what could push prices back up.
Oil fell more than 8% after the midterms and the national gas average is $4.12. Here’s how soon prices could drop below $4, how much cheaper gas could get, and what could push prices back up.
Kara
Yes, gas prices are going down, and they could drop further soon. Oil fell more than 8% on Wednesday, November 4, 2026, after the midterm elections raised hopes for an end to the Iran war. Brent crude slipped below $100 a barrel for the first time since October 7, and U.S. crude closed around $88, NBC News reported. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan says the national average could fall below $4 a gallon in the “days ahead.” Here’s where prices stand, how fast the drop reaches your local pump, and what could stop it.
The AAA national average for regular gas was $4.12 a gallon on Wednesday morning, according to NBC News. That’s still 39% higher than before the Iran war began on February 28, which disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. For a refresher on how prices got this high, see our explainer on why gas prices were so high in October 2026.
Prices were already falling before the election. AAA said the national average dropped 12 cents in the week to $4.15 on Election Day, which was still the highest average ever recorded on a congressional Election Day. The old record was $3.80 in 2022. Diesel was at $6.29 a gallon, also a record for that day.
To put 2026 in perspective, here are AAA’s key numbers for the year:
The national average is pulled up by expensive states like California and Oregon, so it doesn’t reflect what most people see at the pump. In its November 2 weekly report, GasBuddy said the median U.S. gas price was already $3.99 a gallon, and $3.99 was also the most common price drivers found. The cheapest 10% of stations averaged $3.33, while the priciest 10% averaged $5.60.
Oil traders are betting that the election results will push the White House toward ending the war rather than escalating it. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X on Wednesday that “the reason we lost is the war,” and oil slid to its lowest level in more than two months after his comments, the BBC reported. President Trump has acknowledged that high gas prices hurt Republicans, but he also said he would launch the war again.
The move was steep. Brent traded as high as $118 a barrel on Friday, October 30, and was around $94 by Wednesday, according to NBC News. It was oil’s biggest one-day drop since April. If you want the bigger picture on what the new Congress means for your budget, read our guide to what the 2026 midterm results mean for your taxes, tariffs and money.
Pump prices usually trail oil by a few days. “If oil keeps plummeting, gas and diesel prices will follow,” De Haan told MarketWatch, adding that fuel prices may lag the drop in oil by two to four days. Stations have to sell the fuel they already bought at higher wholesale prices before they can cut what they charge.
AAA uses a simple rule of thumb: every $1 change in the price of a barrel of crude moves gasoline by about 2.4 to 2.5 cents a gallon. AAA put U.S. crude at about $100 a barrel a week before the election. If oil holds near Wednesday’s close of about $88, that rule suggests roughly 29 to 30 cents of downward pressure over time. That’s a rough estimate, not a forecast, because refinery issues, taxes and local competition all affect what you pay.
The calendar is on drivers’ side, too. Gas usually gets cheaper in the fall as stations switch to winter-blend fuel, which costs less to make, and as demand drops with cooler weather. California, which required summer-blend fuel through October 31, just made that switch. “The next six weeks typically deliver one of the most hostile environments for higher gasoline and diesel prices,” Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser to Gulf Oil, said on social media, as quoted by NBC News. He added that if the U.S. and Iran avoid “scorched earth” policies in the Persian Gulf, “we may see considerably lower prices by second half December.”
The drop isn’t guaranteed. GasBuddy warned that “volatility could return quickly after the election,” and De Haan’s call for sub-$4 gas came with the condition “barring a course change.” The biggest risks:
Some forecasters still see oil staying expensive. Before Wednesday’s plunge, Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel and now expects Brent to average $88 in 2027, Yahoo Finance reported. Even at $94, Brent is still almost 50% higher than a year ago.
Diesel is falling more slowly. GasBuddy said the diesel average fell 5.9 cents in the week to $6.281 a gallon, compared with a 17.1-cent drop for gasoline. That matters even if you don’t drive a diesel vehicle, because trucking costs feed into the price of groceries and shipped goods. High energy costs were a big reason prices rose 3.7% in the year to September, according to the BBC, and they’re one reason the Fed has been cautious. Our recap of the Fed’s October rate decision explains how that affects your credit card and mortgage rates.
Yes. The AAA national average fell to $4.12 a gallon on November 4 after a 12-cent weekly drop, and oil’s slide below $100 a barrel should push prices lower if it holds.
GasBuddy’s Patrick De Haan expects the national average to fall below $4 in the coming days, barring a change in the situation. The median station price was already $3.99 on November 2.
Usually about two to four days, according to GasBuddy, though it can take longer for the full drop to reach every station.
Traders expect the Democratic wave and comments from Republicans, including JD Vance, to push the administration toward ending the Iran war, which would ease worries about oil supplies.
Yes. New attacks near the Strait of Hormuz, damage to Russian refineries or U.S. refinery outages could reverse the decline quickly.
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